WAFF Weather

The Weekend Forecast. Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2

Putting together the 7 day forecast this afternoon.  We continue to notice a distinct difference between two of the most trusted long range forecast models regarding an incoming cold front and what will become of Tropical Storm Sandy.

The latest track from the National Hurricane Center puts Sandy over Jamaica and into Cuba as a Category 1 Hurricane.  From there is tracks north and then makes a right turn out to sea after leaving the Bahamas. 

Here are the two scenarios we are looking at in the WAFF 48 Storm Tracking Center.  Scenario 1 is from the ECMWF forecast model.  Scenario 2 is the GFS forecast model. The black lines represent line of equal pressure.  There are more of them around the center of circulation to Tropical Storm Sandy. 

Both solutions are close up to the Noon hour on Saturday.  The ECMWF is a little farther west and closer to the US coastline.  Saturday night the GFS model takes Sandy out to sea as the cold front moves into the Southeast.  However the ECMWF makes a drastic turn into New England Sunday and creates a hybrid tropical storm/winter storm. 

The European (ECMWF) model has been very consistant with this hybrid system moving into the Northeast.  Something to keep a close eye on if you have weekend travel plans.  Regardless of the outcome we are expecting little change to the forecast for the Tennessee Valley.  A cold front will move in Saturday and provide a few showers.  This will be followed by much cooler air.  Highs will only be in the 60s.

Saturday Evening Forecast

Look for increasing clouds tonight with lows around 70 with widely scattered showers and storms possible.  Better rain and storm chances are expected on Sunday with a 60% chance in the forecast.  Skies should be mostly cloudy Sunday.  With more clouds and rain around, highs Sunday will likely only reach the low to middle 80s.  Rain chances fall back to around 30% by Monday.  High pressure should build back into the area Tuesday through Thursday bringing more hot and dry weather.  Highs will be in the low to middle 90s with lows in the 70s.  Another front is expected to push into the valley by Friday bringing a chance for isolated showers and storms.  Seasonable and dry weather is expected for Labor Day weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s.  As we near the peak of hurricane season, the tropics are really active with category 2 hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl.  Danielle has turned to the north and is passing east of Bermuda.  Danielle should stay east of the US coast.  T.S. Earl may approach the US east coast by the middle of next week and will be monitored closely for potential impacts.  Get the latest look at WAFF Live Doppler 48 radar and a look at the tropics online at www.waff.com.  Enjoy the rest of your weekend! Remeisha Shade Meteorologist WAFF 48 Storm Team We Track Storms

Saturday AM Forecast Update

Changes have been made to the weekend forecast.  An area of high pressure has weakened more than expected and moved farther to our east.  This will allow moisture to push into the valley increasing our chances for rain and storms.  Look for partly sunny skies today with a 20% chance for showers and storms, mainly after noon.  Highs today will be in the low 90s for most areas.  Lows tonight will fall to around 70 with scattered showers and storms possible.  Better rain and storm chances are expected on Sunday with a 60% chance in the forecast.  Skies should be mostly cloudy Sunday.  With more clouds and rain around, highs Sunday will likely only reach the low to middle 80s.  Rain chances fall back to around 30% by Monday.  High pressure should build back into the area Tuesday through Thursday bringing more hot and dry weather.  Highs will be in the 90s with lows in the 70s.  Another front is expected to push into the valley by Friday bringing a chance for isolated showers and storms.  As we near the peak of hurricane season, the tropics are really active with category 2 hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl.  Danielle has turned to the north and is expected to pass east of Bermuda today.  Danielle should stay east of the US.  T.S. Earl may approach the US east coast by next week and will be monitored closely.  Get the latest look at WAFF Live Doppler 48 radar and a look at the tropics online at www.waff.com.  Have a great weekend! Remeisha Shade Meteorologist WAFF 48 Storm Team We Track Storms

Tropics Getting Busy

Out in the tropical Atlantic we are tracking category 2 hurricane Danielle, which could become a major hurricane.  Tropical Storm Early will likely become a hurricane, and is right behind Danielle.  Both of those storms appear in line to re-curve into the central Atlantic and miss the US.  But, behind that, off the coast of Africa is yet another system which the models suggest will become an important player down the road.  Could this system become Fiona at some point?  Stay tuned.  Plus, there are several tropical waves lined up and poised to come off Africa in the next several days as we drawy closer to the peak of hurricane season.  It will be an interesting time.

PM Forecast Update

Get ready for a wet weather pattern to take hold for the rest of the week.  Plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to stream northward.  This will make for some muggy conditions as well as the "fuel" for numerous thunderstorms.  Several issues we will have to monitor over the next several days...1) Heavy rainfall is possible with these thunderstorms which could contribute to flash flooding 2) Frequent cloud to ground lightning.  It looks like some periods of heavy rain are possible through this evening. The remnants of Tropical Depression #5 is the primary contributor to our wet weather pattern.  Fortunately, the additional cloud cover and rain should keep the temperatures down through the rest of the week.  In the longer range, it appears rain will remain in the forecast even for Saturday.  Sunday looks to be a drier day.  High pressure should return to the forecast next week making for hotter days with fewer thunderstorms. Tonight: Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely. Low 77. Winds Light. Tomorrow: Rain and thunderstorms likely.  Heavy rain at times. High 93. Winds SW 5-8. Have a great evening! James-Paul Dice Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist james.dice@wbrc.com

Showers & Storms Likely Today

Patchy fog will affect portions of the valley through mid-morning.  Look for slightly cooler temperatures today and a better chance for rain and storms due to two systems.  A front has stalled right on top of us and the remnants of tropical depression #5 are spreading moisture our way.  This will mean a 60 percent chance of rain and storms today.  The tropical low is 35 miles SE of Gulfport, MS and there is only a 30% chance now of this system becoming a depression or storm before making landfall later today.  Regardless of the strength, there will be plenty of moisture headed our way which will mean very heavy rainfall likely today.  A few storms are also possible with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.  The best chance for rain and storms today will be in the morning and early afternoon.  With more clouds and rain around, temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the low 90s.  There are no heat advisories in effect today.  Look for scattered  to numerous showers and storms for the rest of the week (Wed. through Sat.) with highs in the low 90s and lows in the 70s.  Have a wonderful Tuesday! Remeisha Shade Meteorologist WAFF 48 Storm Team We Track Storms

Not Quite a Depression Yet

The remnants of tropical depression 5 are back out over the Gulf waters, but so far the system has not redeveloped into a depression yet. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

Redevelopment of Tropical Depression 5 Possible

The remnants of tropical depression 5 is moving southward toward Panama City and nearing the northern Gulf of Mexico, where some models indicate the system could redevelop into Tropical Depression 5 on Monday.  A few models indicate this system could become a tropical storm.  Stay tuned.   Here's the latest combined model data, including possible tracks and forecast intensity.

Tropical Low Could Redevelop As It Heads Toward The Gulf

The Remnants of TD 5 has bee meandering around the region through the weekend producing tropical downpours.  As this syetm drifts southward, it could emerge over the northern Gulf as possibly be classified as a tropical cyclone again.  Stay tuned. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Weekend Tropical Downpours At Times

No doubt about it, the major player over the weekend and beyond will be the remnant low, which was formerly Tropical Depression 5.  This tropical low will continue to bounce again portions of south Alabama through the weekend at least.  In fact, some of the computer models like the idea of recurving this low back out over the waters of the warm northern gulf by Sunday night or Monday.  If this low should get back over the Gulf, it could become a depression or storm, and then it's a whole new ballgame. What to expect:  Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread over the next few days over Alabama and surrounding states.  Because of the tropical nature of this system, total rainfall amounts through the weekend and into early next week could be excessive in some areas.  Showers and storms will be most plentiful in the afternoon and evening hours. By the way, the normal high for this time of year is 93.  We haven't been that low in awhile.  Afternoon highs will be more reasonable in the next few days, with readings reaching the lower 90s (as opposed to 97-102).  The reason?  The rain and clouds.  Enjoy the rain.  We need it.  Have a great weekend. Here is the expected rainfall graphic for the next 5 days from HPC: