WAFF Weather

The Spring Break weekend forecast for the Smoky Mountains.

Some good news if you are traveling to the Smokys Friday morning.  We will start the day with a few showers in North Alabama but as you travel to the northeast towards Chattanooga or Nashville you will find dry weather.  It will be mostly cloudy in Galtinburg but it looks like the rain will stay away.  Just a few showers possible late in the day on Saturday.  Sunday there will be a chance for some snow during the morning hours across the Smoky Mountains. Some accumulation is possible.  Cooler weather will follow the weekend storm system into next week. Most of next week will be dry with some sunshine and below normal temperatures.  Have a safe trip.

Spring Break weekend forecast for the Gulf Coast.

Showers and thunderstorms will be around in the Tennessee Valley as we enter the weekend but they will also see thunderstorms along the coast.  Spring breakers should be aware of the dangers of cloud to ground lightning, strong gusty wind and large hail with the thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening.  

The current Day 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

Some travel problems possible early Friday morning.

A freezing rain advisory is in effect for Friday morning.  A storm system we have been tracking for several days will bring the potential for a brief period of freezing rain and some sleet to many parts of North Alabama between 3am and 11am Friday morning. 


Cold and dry air has been moving into the area today.  Early Friday morning a layer of warmer air will move over this cold shallow air mass.  Eventually we will all see just a chilly rain.  However, in the beginning we will see a period of light freezing rain and or sleet.  Some bridges and overpasses could become slick along I-65 and to the west before sunrise Friday morning.  By 9am most  of the temperatures from the Huntsville metro area to the west will be above freezing. 




Areas of Jackson, DeKalb and Marshall counties will see the moisture move in around 5am.  By 6am most of Northeast Alabama will see some freezing rain and or sleet.  Travel problems are possible, especially on bridges and overpasses.

 Temperatures will stay at or below freezing longer in these areas therefore the chance for travel problems will be higher in Northeast Alabama between 5am and 11am.  By the early afternoon hours most, if not all of North Alabama, will have temperatures above freezing. 

A closer view of the forecast temperatures and chance for freezing rain over NE Alabama showing 7am and 11am.  



I'm expecting the freezing rain to be light and I'm not expecting any power lines or trees down due to excessive ice.

A chilly rain will continue for the early afternoon hours and come to an end before sunset.

Temperatures will drop to near freezing overnight into Saturday morning but most area roads will have plenty of time to dry before this happens. 

Saturday afternoon will be mostly sunny with highs in the middle 40s.  A slight chance of rain will return late Sunday with highs in the 50s. Highs will return to the middle 60s by the middle of next week with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stay tuned to all of the changing weather on WAFF, online and on your mobile.

Have a safe night.

 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Will it be rain or more freezing rain and sleet?

That continues to be the big question right now.  A cold front will move in tonight and provide a quick round of showers with temperatures in the 40s.  Overnight the temperatures will drop into the upper 20s just before sunrise.  Thursday will be a cold sunny day with highs in the upper 30s and a north wind at 7-12mph.

Clouds will increase Thursday night and that's where the disagreement beings with the forecast model guidance.  Some forecast guidance suggests the shallow cold air that is brought in by tonight's cold front will stay locked in place Friday morning while others suggest a brief period of sleet and freezing rain early Friday morning before changing all over to rain as the warm air from the south takes over.  The key is the dry air at the surface.  This is represented well by the Dew Point.  Basically it's the measure of the amount of moisture in the air.  Rain that falls through dry air cools the air by a process known as evaporative cooling.

Here are three models I'm looking at to put together the forecast.  By far the RPM model is the driest which is the reason it keeps everything as freezing rain and sleet.  This model has been very consistant the past 36 hours and I'm watching to see if the other models begin to trend in that direction.  We probably won't have a better idea until the Thursday morning model run.  That doesn't leave a lot of time for a Friday forecast.



Here is a graphic that explains the warmer air and moisture moving over the top of the shallow cold air at the surface.

Think of the atmosphere as a building.  The bottom floor on Friday will start out below freezing in some areas.  The temperatures on the third floor of the building (atmosphere) will be above freezing.  The rain drops fall into the dry and cold air making freezing rain and sleet possible.

At this point in time it looks like we will see a period of freezing rain and sleet early Friday morning before changing all over to rain.  Until the forecast guidance comes closer to agreement there will remain a lot of uncertainty regarding any possible travel problems.

This is the time frame for sleet and freezing rain that I am expecting as of right now.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Holiday Travel and a breakdown of the 7 Day Forecast.

It will be a beautiful weekend in the Tennessee Valley with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s.  Here is a look down the road to the end of next week.  Thanksgiving, Black Friday and the Iron Bowl.  A lot of people will be traveling late next week. 


 It is beginning to look like this dry weather pattern could break down ahead of a cold front next weekend.  Stay tuned for possible changes it is a long range forecast and things often change quickly this time of year.


High pressure and nice weather for Thanksgiving. Highs in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.  A storm system out in the Atlantic tracking East and out to sea.


On Friday high pressure drops southeast and we see the return of a south wind late in the day.  Highs in the middle 60s with increasing clouds and humidity.  A cold front begins to track across the Plains.

By Saturday (Iron Bowl Day) there is a chance the cold front will make it into North Alabama late in the day.  This would produce scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.  Temps would likely reach the middle to upper 60s and maybe even the lower 70s.  The timing of the front will change with future model runs so it could move in earlier or as much as a day later.  Just something to watch.  Confidence is not high for rain during the Iron Bowl at this time.  Keep checking back.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

The Weekend Forecast. Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2

Putting together the 7 day forecast this afternoon.  We continue to notice a distinct difference between two of the most trusted long range forecast models regarding an incoming cold front and what will become of Tropical Storm Sandy.

The latest track from the National Hurricane Center puts Sandy over Jamaica and into Cuba as a Category 1 Hurricane.  From there is tracks north and then makes a right turn out to sea after leaving the Bahamas. 

Here are the two scenarios we are looking at in the WAFF 48 Storm Tracking Center.  Scenario 1 is from the ECMWF forecast model.  Scenario 2 is the GFS forecast model. The black lines represent line of equal pressure.  There are more of them around the center of circulation to Tropical Storm Sandy. 

Both solutions are close up to the Noon hour on Saturday.  The ECMWF is a little farther west and closer to the US coastline.  Saturday night the GFS model takes Sandy out to sea as the cold front moves into the Southeast.  However the ECMWF makes a drastic turn into New England Sunday and creates a hybrid tropical storm/winter storm. 

The European (ECMWF) model has been very consistant with this hybrid system moving into the Northeast.  Something to keep a close eye on if you have weekend travel plans.  Regardless of the outcome we are expecting little change to the forecast for the Tennessee Valley.  A cold front will move in Saturday and provide a few showers.  This will be followed by much cooler air.  Highs will only be in the 60s.

Snow now falling in NW Mississippi, Northern Arkansas, and West Tennessee.

Light drizzle has developed across North Alabama and will turn to light rain as the afternoon wears on.  We are tracking a band of  light to moderate snow and it should enter the Shoals between 5 and 6pm this evening.  It will continue to track to the east at about 35mph.  The snow will be ending in the Shoals around 9pm, the Metro around 11pm and parts of Northeast Alabama just after Midnight.  The snow will likely only accumulate at first on grassy areas along with cars, porches and roof tops.  As the snow continues it could begin to accumulate on elevated roadways such as bridges and overpasses.  Snowfall accumulations are expected to be around 1/2 to 1 inch in most areas.  Some of the snow that accumulates early will likely melt before tempeatures drop into the middle 20s overnight.  Some travel problems are possible early Friday morning if the roads don't dry out before the much colder air moves in. We will have the very latest on tonights snow  and Monday's snow chances on WAFF 48 News at 5pm.

This picture from our ALFA camera in Paragould, AR shows a good example of what we will likely see in our area later this evening.  Notice how the roads are wet with the accumulation on cars and grassy areas.  The water on the roadways refreezing is the biggest concern right now.

 

Radar image.

 

Special Weather Statement from Huntsville National Weather Service. (Black Ice and Fog)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1030 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011 ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-141200- LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN- MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...RUSSELLVILLE... MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...GUNTERSVILLE... SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE... WINCHESTER 1030 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011 ...BLACK ICE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG... THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS...WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...AS MOISTURE FROM THE FOG FREEZES TO AREA ROADS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IN AREAS WHERE SNOW AND ICE REMAIN ON THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY ON SIDE ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. BLACK ICE CAN BE VERY HARD TO SEE ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ATTENTIVE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...AND USE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVELING OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHERE FOG DEVELOPS...AND SNOW OR ICE REMAIN.

State of Emergency form Marshall County

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
MARSHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY GUNTERSVILLE AL
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1100 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY FOR MARSHALL COUNTY...
...ALL COUNTY ROADWAYS ARE CLOSED AT THIS TIME...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MARSHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY GUNTERSVILLE AL.

A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED IN MARSHALL COUNTY...
DUE TO WIDESPREAD TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS. SPECIFICALLY...ALL
CITY STREETS IN ALBERTVILLE...ARAB...BOAZ...GUNTERSVILLE...AND
DOUGLAS HAVE BEEN DECLARED IMPASSABLE AND ARE CLOSED AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...OFFICIALS HAVE REQUESTED THAT ALL NON-ESSENTIAL TRAFFIC
BE LIMITED OR CANCELLED. AGAIN...ALL ROADS IN MARSHALL COUNTY AND ITS
MUNICIPALITIES HAVE BEEN DECLARED TREACHEROUS AND IMPASSABLE. TRAVEL
SHOULD BE AVOIDED EXCEPT FOR TRUE EMERGENCIES.

 

Travel Problems developing quickly to our south.

The moisture is developing rapidly and moving northeast.  The areas in yellow in the radar are areas of Heavy Sleet and Heavy Snow.

From Blount County Oneonta City Manager and Oneonta Police Chief have announced that all city streets in Oneonta are now impassable due to ice and sleet.