WAFF Weather

Wednesday night t-storm time frame.

Here is an updated time frame on when to expect showers and storms in  your area later tonight.  While the storms will be severe farther to the west I am still expecting to see a weakening trend as they track from west to east across North Alabama and southern Tennessee. The strongest wind gusts will be felt across the Shoals.  Some of them could reach 50mph in isolated areas. 

 

The line of storms will be just west of the Shoals around 11:30 pm.  There will likely be a severe thunderstorm watch out for much of Mississippi at this time. 

 

Around 12:30am expect to see strong gusty winds cross the Alabama state line as the storms weaken and track east at 30 - 40 mph.  Some isolated wind gusts could reach 50mph at this time and a few severe thunderstorm warnings will be possible in the Shoals.  If your weather radio goes off for these storms, chances are it is for a severe thunderstorm with straight line winds.

 

A lot of red on this image from Pinpoint Predictor.  This is indicating the heavy rain associated with the line of storms.  Wind gusts could reach 45mph at this time  but the storms will continue to weaken as they track east into the Huntsville Metro area. 

 

You can see a real change on this image.  The storms will continue to weaken over the Metro area and track east into Northeast Alabama with moderate rain and wind gusts to 35mph. 

By 5:00am Thursday the heavy rain is almost over and the line of storms will have lost most of it's punch.  Expect some lightning and wind gusts up to 30mph.  The rain will continue to track east into Georgia and will have cleared the state by 6:00am. 

I will have more updates here and on facebook and twitter later this evening and tonight.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

 

Breezy ahead of the front Wednesday. Winds increase with the storms.

As you can see with in this hour by hour forecast for the Huntsville Metro area Wednesday afternoon and evening will be breezy as a cold front approaches from the west.  A line of thunderstorms will also be forming ahead of the next change in the weather tomorrow night.  Within this line of storms the winds will only increase.

 

By 11pm Wednesday night a well formed line of showers and thunderstorms will be advancing east ahead of the front.  These storms could be severe over Mississippi but I expect they will weaken below severe limits before they cross the Alabama state line.  Wind gusts could reach 40-50mph over extreme west Alabama between 11pm and Midnight.  Here is a look at the line of storms forcast with Pinpoint Predictor for 11pm Wednesday. 

 

Now for a look at wind speeds forecast along this line as it moves through Alabama and southern Tennessee.  This line will run out of instability but due to the momentum and forward speed we could have a few wind gusts up to 45mph as it moves through.  Here is a timeframe by Pinpoint Predictor showing wind speed beginning at 12am Thursday.  The first image shows an area of red indicating wind 30-40mph possible along the line as it moves into the Shoals.  Keep in mind isolated wind gusts could be stronger.

 

As the line tracks east the wind speed will slow down some but sustained winds 20-30 mph will be common with some wind gusts up to 40mph still possible.  Here's 3am Thursday morning.

 

By 4am the broken line of showers and storms will be moving through NE Alabama with wind gusts up to 35mph and sustained winds 20-30mph.  Here is a snapshot of the forecast for 4am. 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Heavy rain and severe weather chances for Friday night and Saturday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma has placed the Tennessee Valley under a slight risk for severe weather.  The SPC is responsible for issuing Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm watches.  They issue the risk areas based on forecast parameters reaching specific values that have a history of producing severe weather.  Severe weather is defined as Tornadoes, quarter sized hail or larger and or straight line wind 58mph or greater.  The risk categories are slight, moderate and high.  The threat for significant severe weather goes up based upon this risk assesment.  I don't expect us to see an upgrade to a moderate risk but there is a threat for nickel sized hail,  wind gusts over 58mph and isolated tornadoes late tonight and very early Saturday morning.  The cold front will pass through before the Noon hour and tempeatures will begin to fall into the 40s for the rest of the day on Saturday.

The area in yellow below is the area under the Slight Risk tonight.

 

Temperatures early Saturday morning will be well above normal due to the amount of moisture in the air.

Pinpoint Predictor is showing a line of storms beginning to form ahead of a cold front after Midnight tonight.  This line will likely begin to intensify and track slowly to the east.  It will producing very heavy rain along it's track.  Rainfall totals beteen .75" and 2.00" could result in flash flooding in areas that had problems with flooding earlier this week.  The National Weather Service in Huntsville has places us under a Flash Flood Watch tonight and early Satuday. There will also be the threat for severe weather with some of the stronger storms. 

A snapshot of 2:00am Saturday. 

This is more raw data from Pinpoint Predictor that shows where the atmosphere will be the most unstable around 2:00am.  This is represented as the area in blue.  Although the most unstable air will be over NW Alabama the all of the storms will be able to feed off of this due to the south wind ahead of this line. 

As the front continues to track east and southeast the threat for flash flooding will peak around 4:00am.  1-2" of rain could occur between 2:00am and 5:00am.

By 7:00am the rain will begin to taper off and temperatures will be on the way down for the rest of the day. 

Below is the overall threat for this event.  The main threat is flash flooding in yellow but the stronger storms could become severe and produce large hail and damaging winds. There is also going to be just enough spin in the atmosphere for tornadoes so we will be keeping a close eye on Live Storm Tracker Doppler throughout the night.  Due to this shear the National Weather Service could place parts of North Alabama and southern Tennessee under a Tornado Watch at some point tonight. It would be a good idea to have your NOAA weather alert radio on tonight.  We will be tracking the storms for you online at waff.com.

Projected rainfall totals between 12am and 8am Saturday morning.  The areas of concentrated rainfall totals 1-2" will depend on where this line actually develops.

You can find more information on how to program your weather radio online at waff.com.

http://www.waff.com/story/5218974/how-to-program-your-midland-all-hazards-weather-radio

You can also keep up with the latest with our weather app.

http://www.waff.com/story/14059428/wafflaunches-android-weather-app

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Slight Risk for Severe Storms in North Alabama

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed all of North Alabama under a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening. 

Temperatures will continue to warm into the middle 90s.  There is a weak frontal boundary moving in from the north and several other thunderstorm boundaries across the area. Storms will continue to develop as we get later into the afternoon.  Some storms could become severe with damaging wind, large hail and significant lightning.  Torrential rain and localized flash flooding are likely with the stronger storms.

You can stay informed on the new waff.com or other new media like twitter, facebook and our WAFF 48 Weather ap for Android and I-Phone.

 

 

Tornado Watch until 10pm for western TN and North Mississippi.

A line of storms continues to track east.  A tornado watch is possible for North Alabama around 10pm.  The main threat will continue to be straight line wind damage but isolated tornadoes are a threat too.  Here is a timeline.  Shoals:  11:30pm to 1:30am.  Metro 1:30am -3:00am. Mountains  2:30am -4:00am.  The latest forecast today on WAFF 48 News at Five.

Brad Travis

 
 
 

Severe storms and heavy rain this afternoon.

Deep moisture is now in place for strong to severe storms this afternoon.  Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches could also lead to flash flooding later this afternoon and evening.  Storms will be moving at speeds between 50 and 70mph.  Keeping a close eye on development ahead of the main line for tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind. The threat begins to go up around the Noon hour and will last through 9pm..  Winds ouside the storms will be out of the south between 20 and 30mph.

Surface map showing dew points already at 70 along the AL/MS state line.

 

Threat of Severe Weather Developing for Tuesday afternoon

We continue to monitor the develpment of a powerful fall storm system.  Tonight strong southerly winds are pushing moisture to the north feeding the storm and the storms ahead of it.  A squall line is developing from NE Oklahoma to near Minneapolis, MN.  This squall will become severe tonight and move east.  A tornado watch is in effect for a large part of  Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota and Iowa overnight tonight.