Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are looking more likely across the Valley this afternoon. The heat and humidity we're dealing with will provide the fuel and outflow from earlier storms to our northeast as well as some passing upper-level energy will provide the lift to initially fire up those storms.
It’s still not a lock that everyone sees rain today, but this will be highest rain chance of the week. Any storms that develop could intensify quickly. Damaging wind gusts of 55-65 mph would be the most likely threat, but all storms will contain locally heavy rain as well as frequent lightning. The more intense storms could also produce up to quarter-size hail.
Those storms should develop across southern TN during the mid/late afternoon and then track south through the rest of the Valley with time this afternoon/evening. Some of these storms could impact the evening drive home. The farther south you are, the better your odds of staying dry until later this evening. Storms should diminish by the late evening, and we’re in for another warm and muggy night. Lows will drop into the mid 70s.
In addition to the storm threat, we'll all have to deal with the dangerous heat this afternoon. A heat advisory is in effect for Madison, Morgan, Cullman, Limestone, Lawrence, Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin Counties until 7 p.m. this evening for heat indices hotter than 105. Areas north and east of the advisory can still expect an afternoon of oppressive heat, but the heat index is likely to stay below 105.
Storm chances are lower Wednesday, but isolated strong storms could still develop. Highs will be in the mid 90s with a heat index of 100-105. The end of the week will likely be a couple degrees warmer with highs closer to 100. The low afternoon rain chance continues into the hot weekend. Highs should stay in the upper 90s as we start the next work week.
-Meteorologist David Ernst