WAFF Weather

Update on Thursday's storms.

Breezy and warm with high pollen and haze this evening.  Temperatures will stay in the middle 70s through 10pm.  Overnight lows will be around 70 degrees.  Don’t expect any rain until after 9am Thursday morning.  It will be a windy day on Thursday.  Showers and thunderstorms will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours with the potential for damaging winds.  Ahead of this line of storms the winds will be sustained at 20-25mph with wind gusts up to 35mph.

Heavy rain and some hail will also be produced by the showers and thunderstorms.  We will likely fall under a severe thunderstorm or a tornado watch for all of North Alabama and southern Tennessee at some point in the day on Thursday.  Although the primary threat is going to be damaging winds 50-70mph, I cannot rule out the development of some lower end EF0-EF1 type tornadoes that could quickly form along low level storm boundaries. 

Here is the latest timeline regarding the severe weather potential.  The Shoals 10am-1pm….The Huntsville Metro and areas along I-65 from 1pm-4pm….Marshall, DeKalb and Jackson counties between 4pm-8pm. 







The line will likely get stronger as it tracks along and to the east of I-65 between 1pm and 4pm.  Stay tuned for possible changes to the exact timing and strength of this storm system.  We will have a trained storm spotter in the field as the storms roll in, and the Million Watt power of Live Storm Tracker Doppler. 

You can also follow the WAFF 48 Storm Team online at WAFF.com and on your phone or tablet with our weather and news apps.  We will being streaming coverage as soon as the threat begins to move into North Alabama and southern Tennessee.  We will be providing updates throughout the day on Facebook and Twitter.

Forecast rainfall totals.



The rest of the week will be cooler with highs in the 60s Friday after morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.  A chance of some late evening thunderstorms will return Sunday with highs in the 70s.

7Day forecast


Have a safe night.

 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Storm Timeline for Thursday Severe Weather Threat.

We continue to monitor a developing spring storm system that is currently over the Plains.  Ahead of the storm strong southerly winds have warmed temperatures into the lower 80s today.  Huntsville reached 80 degrees for the first time this spring. The last time Huntsville reached 80⁰ was on November 3rd, 2012.  Temperatures will reach the lower 80s Wednesday afternoon after morning lows in the middle 60s.

Wednesday night a line of thunderstorms will be moving towards the Mississippi River.  This line will be racing out ahead of the main cold front.  The line will weaken during the overnight hours but once the cold front catches back up with the rain the line will reform and could become severe as it moves into the Tennessee Valley late Thursday morning. 

The primary threat with will be the potential for damaging straight line winds 50-70mph.  By Thursday afternoon the line will get stronger as it moves from west to east and there will be the potential for some quick spin up EF0-EF1 type tornadoes as the line gets east of I-65 and moves towards Madison, Jackson, DeKalb, Marshall and eastern Morgan counties. 



Storm timeframe…(Shoals 8-11am…Huntsville Metro 11am-3pm…Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb Co. 3pm-6pm) 

You can keep up to date with the latest weather information by watching WAFF 48 news or following us on Facebook and Twitter.  You can also watch our newscasts and severe weather coverage online at waff.com or on our news and weather apps on your smart phone.

Cooler weather will move in behind the storm system Friday morning with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 60s and morning lows in the lower to middle 40s.  Seventy degree weather will return this weekend and there will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or t-storm late Sunday.


Have a great night.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday.

It is warm and breezy today and about the only thing we have to worry about is the pollen count.  A developing storm over the Rockies is beginning to take shape near Denver, Colorado this evening.  This system will move into the Plains Tuesday afternoon and produce a few rounds of severe weather as it moves to the east with time.  Ahead of the storm the strong southerly winds all across the Southeast are bringing a return to the humidity and 80 degree temperatures.  This will add to the instability ahead of this system and create the possibility of severe weather in the Tennessee Valley ahead of a cold front on Thursday.

Day one outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

Day two outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.





The threat for severe weather on Thursday could happen anytime between 6am and 6pm.  We are still trying to get a better handle on the timing of the line of storms. The system is getting better organized today over the Rocky Mountains and will begin to track east overnight. The system is showing slightly colder air behind it therefore there will likely be a stronger difference in air mass. This will lead a squall line that will be moving east early Thursday. Threats include damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. If the system moves in during a weakening stage in the early morning hours the greatest threat will be damaging straight line winds. If the line moves in during the late morning and early afternoon hours the threat for tornadoes will increase due to more instability/heat for the storms to feed off of.  There is still a lot of room for changes with this developing storm system and we will continue to keep you up informed online and on WAFF. 

You can download our weather app today.  We provide streaming coverage during newscasts and during severe weather. 

Behind the storm system expect a brief cool down on Friday with high falling back into the 60s.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

The safest place in these three homes?

The main rules you want to follow are:

1.  Think low think small.  Go to the lowest floor of your home and find the smallest room

2.  Get as many walls between you and the outside as you can.

3.  Avoid windows.

With this home you need to consider that the garage doors on the southwest side of the home will be blown in. The doors will not slow the wind speed down much so bathroom B and storage area A are not safe locations.  The force of the wind will rip the western section of the roof completely off.  In my opinion the eastern side of this home might be the only thing left standing after a strong tornado.

The best locations would be D and F.  They are both small rooms with good support around them. 


This home plan has a similar problem.  The large two car garage door will not stand a chance against the wind coming in. 

C is going to be the safest room with a tornado moving in from the southwest.   However location E might be survivable as well.  Steel entry doors from the Garage to the house and from the living room to the hallway would make C and even safer location.  F and D are the worst places to seek shelter in this home.  Along with bedroom 2.

This open floor plan has many problem.  The southwest corner has very few walls and large rooms.  The wind from an approaching tornado will tear most of the carport, living room and kitchen away from the house.  The safest place is D.  Hallway E will become a wind tunnel and all other locations are on exterior walls. A steel door from hallway E to the living room would make D a safer location.

There are a lot of things to consider with each home.  You must account for how close your neighbors house is.  The wind flow is very erratic when it comes to tornadoes.  There are times when a tornado will wipe out one home and leave the one across the street intact.  Looks around your home, inside and out, and try to determine what items will become debris if a tornado were to hit.

If you have any questions you can alwasy send me an email.  Btravis@waff.com

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Severe Weather Awareness Week - Tornadoes

A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with the ground. if the circulation is not on the ground, then it is defined as a funnel cloud.

Wind speeds in tornadoes can range from 65 miles per hour to 318 miles per hour, the highest tornado wind speed ever recorded. Tornadoes come in different sizes, from narrow rope-like swirls to large wedge-like funnels. In Alabama, tornadoes are often rain-wrapped and hidden or obscured by terrain. This makes them more dangerous.

 

Tornadoes typically develop when the right atmospheric ingredients come together, including warm, moist, unstable air near the surface; cooler, dry air aloft; and strong, atmospheric winds, increasing with height. All thunderstorms can produce tornadoes, but they are most likely to develop within supercells.

  April 27th 2011Courtesy: Huntsville NWS

In Alabama, most tornadoes occur during two peak severe weather seasons. The spring severe weather season spans March, April, and May. The fall severe weather season includes November and early December. Tornadoes typically develop during the warmest part of the day, but are possible any hour of the day or night, and during any month of the year.

March 2nd 2012

Courtesy: Huntville NWS

 

What to do when you hear a tornado siren?

If you are in your home:
Go to a pre-determined shelter, such as a basement. Get under something sturdy like a heavy table, if available. Protect yourself from flying debris with pillows, heavy coats, blankets, or quilts. Use bicycle or motorcycle helmets to protect your head. If an underground shelter is not available, go to a small interior room, such as a closet, bathroom, or interior hallway, on the lowest level. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible. Stay away from windows and doors.

If you are in a mobile home:
Leave well in advance of approaching severe weather and go to a strong building.  If there is not one nearby, take shelter in the most interior room that has no windows, such as a interior bathroom or closet.

If you are caught in your vehicle or outside:
Get out and into a sturdy shelter. If one is not available nearby, get to a low spot and cover your head from flying debris. Do not take cover under an overpass as this does not provide adequate shelter during a tornado and can actually cause increased wind speeds due to a tunneling effect.

If you are in a public building, such as a hospital, school, mall, etc:
Go to the best available, pre-designated, protective area. Basements are best, but interior locations on the lowest level also offer protection. Stay away from windows and rooms with expansive roofs.

Lauren Jones
Meteorologist
WAFF48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

List of Storm Spotter Classes from the National Weather Service Huntsville.

 

North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee:  Storm Spotter Classes offered by the Huntsville National Weather Service office.  These are Free and open to the public.

Date	County	Time (CST/CDT)	Location
Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013	Lawrence	6:30-8:30 PM	Town Creek Community Center / 15971 Main St. Town Creek, AL
Tuesday, Feb. 19	DeKalb	6:00-8:00 PM	Northeast Alabama Community College / 138 Hwy 35 Rainsville, AL
Thursday, Feb. 21	Franklin (TN)	6:00-8:00 PM	Franklin County Annex / 851 Dinah Shore Blvd. Winchester, TN
Tuesday, Feb. 26	Cullman	6:00-8:00 PM	Cullman City Hall / 204 2nd Ave. NE Cullman, AL
Thursday, Feb. 28	Marshall	6:00-8:00 PM	Guntersville Town Hall / 341 Gunter Ave. Guntersville, AL
Monday, March 4	Limestone	6:00-8:00 PM	Limestone County Event Center / 114 W. Pryor St. Athens AL
Tuesday, March 5	Madison	6:00-8:00 PM	USSRC Education Resource Center / 1 Tranquility Base, Huntsville AL
Thursday, March 7	Colbert	6:00-8:00 PM	NW Shoals Community College (Bevill Center) / 1011 G. Wallace Blvd, Tuscumbia AL
Monday, March 11	Jackson	6:00-8:00 PM	Jackson County EMA/EOC / 102 E. Laurel St. Scottsboro, AL

 

Thursday, March 28

Lauderdale

6:00-8:00 PM

Univ. of North Alabama (East Campus) Culinary Classroom / Florence AL

** NOTE -- We are still in the process of setting up classes at several other counties -- please check our NWS Huntsville Skywarn web page for updated information moving forward:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/?n=skywarn

Timeline update on the overnight storms.

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  It looks like the line of storms will become better organized over Arkansas and Mississippi just before Midnight and continue to track to the east across Alabama and Tennessee during the early morning hours.  This is the timeline I posted earlier. Even though there is a 4 hour window with the time, the most intense part of the storms will only last about 30-45 minutes in your area. 




The following is the hour by hour forecast from Pinpoint Predictor.  You can expect strong gusty winds 45-55mph as the line tracks from west to east.  Due to changes within the line as it moves east there could be some areas that contain more wind and within these areas isolated damaging straight line winds could reach speeds of 70mph.  We will not know these areas until the line begins to move through.  We will be streaming coverage overnight on waff.com.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

 

Timeline and storm potential for Wednesday morning

The greatest concern continues to be with Damaging Straight Line winds 50-70mph. Some higher gusts are possible where the line bows out. It will be in the bowing line segments and other isolated boundaries that we could have a few lower end tornadoes develop as well. This is something we will be keeping a close eye on throughout the night. We will begin streaming coverage online at WAFF.com after the 10pm newscast this evening. We will also be providing updates on local programming every thirty minutes beginning at 11pm. Make sure your flashlight have fresh batteries and you have easy access to it should you lose power.


While the biggest impact will be from the wind, if we have a line of storms form ahead of the main line of storms it's possible these storms will develop in an environment with an increased risk to produce lower end of the scale type tornadoes.  These are the EF0-EF1 type tornadoes.  They typically form along boundaries and in bowing line segments.  Because of this we will probably see a tornado watch issued for most of North Alabama and southern Tennessee during the event. 

Early arrival in the Shoals between 1-2am.

3:00am forecast shows the initial line tracking east towards the Moulton and Pulaski.

Forecast for 4:30am show the line moving towards the Metro area.  Likely slowing down some.

6am.  The first line begins to fall apart over the Metro while the main line, along the front, moves into the Shoals.  The weakening of the initial line could work out in our favor and help stablize the atmosphere some. 

9am. Heavy rain and strong winds over the HSV Metro as the main line interacts with the boundary from the inital line.  The line slows down and begins to move into Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb and Fraklin Co, TN. 

10:30am.  Heavy rain and strong gusty winds over eastern Alabama.  Tracking East. 

Stay tuned to WAFF 48 News and the WAFF 48 Storm Team throughout the night on TV, your mobile and on waff.com.  We will be tracking these storms with the most powerful Live Doppler radar in North Alabama.  Live Storm Tracker Doppler Radar.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

A windy and wet start to your Thursday.

An early Winter Storm is moving into the Plains and parts of the Midwest this evening.  As the storm gets stronger and the cold front gets closer to the Tennessee Valley we will see our winds pick up from the south late this evening and overnight tonight.

((Forecast from Pinpoint Predictor showing the storm system producing Blizzard conditions from Nebraska into Iowa late this evening.  New development of t-storms will get going over Arkansas after 6pm this evening.))

((The convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for this evening. The primary threat is straight line wind damage.))
A wind advisory goes in effect at Midnight tonight.  Expect winds to increase to 20-30mph with higher gusts early in the morning.  It would be a good idea to tie down any Christmas decorations or deflate ones that could get picked up by the strong winds.

((Storms will develop along the cold front just before Midnight and continue to track east towards Alabama.))

((The current Day 2 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places the most likely area for severe weather on Thursday to our south.  However some of the storms around here could still produce some damaging wind gusts.  Don't be surprised to see this area shift to the north with the first Day 1 outlook on Thursday.)


((Storm time line on when I expect these areas to see the strongest winds as the line moves through.  Isolated wind gusts could reach 55mph with wind gusts 20-30mph likely outside of the storms.))
A line of thunderstorms will form ahead of the front overnight tonight along the Mississippi River.  This line will accelerate to the east and begin to affect the Shoals soon after sunrise Thursday morning.  The primary threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts along with the heavy rain. The strongest storms will move into the Huntsville Metro area between 10am and Noon and then affect areas of Dekalb, Jackson, and Marshall counties between Noon and 2pm.  Much colder air and a strong northwest wind will move in behind the storms.  Expect wind chill values to be in the upper 20s by 5pm.

((Forecast rainfall totals for Thursday through 1pm.))

((Forecast wind chill values around 5pm Thursday afternoon.))

Overnight lows will be in the 20s Friday through Sunday with afternoon highs only in the 40s for Friday and Saturday.  Rain could return as early as Sunday afternoon and evening.

Prepare for several rounds of rain early next week including Christmas Day.  Afternoon highs will be in the 50s next week.  The Valley is in for a good soaking with 1-3 inches of rainfall through Wednesday of next week.

Have a great night.

 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

An update on the Thursday morning storm forecast.

Temperatures will drop into the 40s after sunset under a clear sky.  Expect light winds overnight with patchy fog and a low around 38 degrees.



We are tracking a developing winter storm that is crossing the Rockies tonight.  It will produce blizzard conditions over parts of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska on Wednesday.  Heavy snow will track from Nebraska into Iowa Wednesday afternoon and evening.



We will be on  the warm and wet side of this storm.  Expect breezy south winds late Wednesday across the Tennessee Valley with no rain through Midnight Wednesday night.  Afternoon highs will be in the middle to upper 60s.



Early Thursday morning a squall line of thunderstorms will be on the move.  This line will track east and cross the Alabama / Mississippi state line between 6am and 8am and continue to track east for the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours.  Within this line of storms there will be the potential for damaging straight line winds up to 60 mph and enough shear for a quick spin up small tornado. It is possible parts of North Alabama could be placed under a tornado watch due to the low level shear in the atmosphere.   However, the primary threat will remain damaging wind gusts. 




The rain will be gone by 3pm and temperatures will drop into the 40s by sunset on Thursday.  They will fall below freezing by sunrise Friday.  It will turn much colder into the weekend.  Morning lows around 25 early Saturday with afternoon highs Friday and Saturday only in the 40s.

A look ahead to next week shows another storm system that will likely bring rain back into the Tennessee Valley for Christmas.

Have a great night. 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms