Stay weather alert today as heavy rain tracks across the Valley this morning. Strong-to-severe storms are expected this afternoon.
Heavy rain will spread across the Tennessee Valley through the morning hours. Numerous flash flood warnings were issued overnight for parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Heavy rain and standing water on roads will create problems locally, and likely slow the morning commute for many of you. Widespread rain totals of 1-2” can be expected this morning, and some spots could see more than that. A flash flood watch is in effect for all of the Valley through Friday morning.
The steady rain should taper off by the late morning or early afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 70s during this break from the heavy rain. Southerly winds will be breezy at times, gusting to over 20 mph. You’ll notice an increase in humidity through the day.
The stage will then be set for strong-to-severe storms this afternoon. Those storms should initiate to our west, near a cold front by the early/mid afternoon.
They would then track into north AL and southern TN from the southwest after 5pm. Given the higher instability and wind shear, supercell type storms are possible. These storms would be capable of producing stronger tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts.
The reason I'm starting the severe timeline off at 3p this afternoon is on the low probability that we get unstable enough for supercell storms to initiate here in the Valley. The threat for strong/severe storms locally should peak during the evening hours…6-10pm…and then trend down as we head towards midnight.
Isolated rain showers remain possible overnight, but the severe threat should be over by midnight…ending earlier farther to the west.
Friday’s highs should be around 70° with mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon. Skies clear overnight, and we’ll be cooler for the weekend. Look for plenty of sun Saturday and Sunday afternoons with highs generally in the mid 60s. Dry weather should continue into the start of next week.
Check back for updates on the threat for severe weather this afternoon.
-Meteorologist David Ernst