WAFF Weather

Changes to the 7 Day forecast.

Much colder air across the Midwest and the Great Lakes this afternoon. 


A challenging forecast lies ahead for the Tennessee Valley.  Another shot of Arctic air will move in behind a cold front late Wednesday evening.  Highs will return to the middle and upper 40s Wednesday afternoon.


 Ahead of this front is looks like the clouds will return along with some spotty showers and perhaps some drizzle. Temperatures will remain above freezing while the rain and drizzle are falling Wednesday evening.  For tonight it will remain clear and dry with lows in the middle to upper 20s. 

Thursday will be partly cloudy with more clouds late in the day.  A few scattered showers possible late Thursday afternoon with highs in the middle 40s.  Forecast guidance is generous with a quick moisture return overnight Thursday into Friday morning.  At the same time a northeast wind will continue to bring in cold air at the surface.  It is now looking possible for us to see a period of light rain mixed with freezing rain and sleet in some areas of the Tennessee Valley early Friday morning. 


At this point it looks like everything will change over to just rain late Friday morning.  I expect more changes to the timing and the precipitation type over the coming days.   Stay tuned for possible changes.

Over the weekend expect some sunshine Saturday and a few showers on Sunday with increasing clouds.  Highs will be in the 40s.




Have a great night and stay warm.  

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

An update on next week's storm system.

As expected we are beginning to see some changes to timing, strength and location in regards to the storm system we've been tracking for next week.  The current weather pattern features a fast moving jet stream and energy coming out of the southwestern United States.  This creates problems for long range forecast models.  I think the model that has be best handle on the situation is the European model.  The GFS model appears too fast with the development of the surface low.  This developing system is looking more and more like a Noreaster that will bring more rain, wind and snow to parts of the Northeast late next week.  In the developing stages we in North Alabama  will see rain followed by colder tempeatures and a stronger northwest wind.  These types of systems typically only bring us a threat for a few flurries.  This storm would need to develop farther to our southwest to bring any significant snow.

The latest from the GFS. 


This 7am Tuesday morning.  This is much faster than the previous runs of the model and doesn't have much cold air with it either.  I think this model is having trouble with the weekend storm system.  Moving everything too fast.  Therefore I am not buying into this solution and will likely adjust the weekend forecast to reflect the European solution.

The latest ECMWF (European model)

This shows the beginning of a Noreaster.  The area of low pressure begin to deepen Tuesday into Wednesday with colder air moving into the Tennessee Valley and maybe a few flurries with the leftover moisture.  Strong storms ahead of the developing surface low over Georgia and Florida.  This setup is more typical of what we see this time of year.  It is also a more consistant model run.


By 7am Wednesday the European model shows an intensifying Noreaster.  Heavy rain in the Northeast along with gusty winds. Cold air down the backside of the storm system with some snow in the Appalachians.  As this storm system comes together it will likely pull down some of the cold air that is locked in place in Central Canada right now. 

For the 7 Day forecast I'm leaning towards the European model and keeping rain chances in the forecast for Saturday - Tuesday.  Looks like a cold rain for us Tuesday.  Temperatures later next week could stay in the upper 30s for afternoon highs.  Overnight lows in the lower 20s or colder possible beyond the 7 day forecast.


Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Big changes ahead.

Scattered light rain and drizzle will move north, mainly across the Huntsville Metro and Northeast Alabama into the late evening hours.   Temperatures will drop into the lower 50s this evening with overnight lows in the middle to upper 40s.

A few areas of drizzle are likely to start the day on Thursday.  It will be mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower 60s and an east wind at 5-10mph. 



Warmer air will begin to move back into the area as we enter the weekend.  Southeast winds on Friday afternoon with push temperatures back into the upper 60s with a few showers possible late in the day.  Scattered showers will be possible once again Saturday but it will not be a washout.


Temperatures will get close to 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday.  A potent storm system will be developing to our west throughout the day on Sunday.  Much colder air will be dropping in behind the storm while warm, moist and unstable air will be surging north ahead of it.  Late Sunday night into Monday morning a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will approach the Tennessee Valley from the west.  Very heavy rain and strong gusty winds look likely at this point.  The overall threat of severe weather remains unclear this far out so keep checking back for updates to this forecast. 



Much colder air will move in behind this storm system throughout the day on Monday.  We will likely start the morning around 60 degrees with temperatures in the lower 40s by 5pm.  A strong northwest wind will put an end to the rain Monday. 

Have a great night. 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Cold air and breezy conditions on the way tonight.

A cold front will track through North Alabama overnight tonight.  This front will bring a few clouds along for the ride but no rain or snow.  You will notice a drastic change by 5am and it will come from a strong northwest wind.

We are forecasting highs in the lower 40s Saturday but it will not feel like it.  Wind chill values to start the day will be in the teens and for much of the daylight hours it will feel more like the upper 20s and lower 30s instead of the 40s.

The wind will die down some late Saturday night but the cold air will be in full force.  Wind chill values will be around 15 early Sunday morning with actual temperatures in the lower 20s.  Afternoon highs will get into the upper 40s Sunday afternoon.  You may want to protect exposed pipes and your pets Saturday night.

Unsettled weather will return to the area Thursday and Friday of next week.  We are also tracking a warming trend that will begin as early as Monday.  Highs near 60 degrees by Wednesday. 

Have a safe weekend,

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Watching the Weekend.

While Thanksgiving, Black Friday and the Iron Bowl look rain free, late Saturday night a storm system is developing that will likely bring heavy rain, strong gusty winds and just maybe a chance for snow.

 

Shower and thunderstorm chances will go up Saturday evening and continue into Sunday morning.  Depending on the location of the upper level part of this storm system we could see some snow develop Sunday night into Monday.  This will be a very difficult forecast this far out and it will likely undergo several changes over the coming days.  Even if we see snow we are not anticipating any travel problems due to the warm ground temperatures. 

Here is the latest short range forecast model (below) that is now out to Saturday morning.  On it you will see the colder air developing over the Rocky Mountains under the 1049mb area of High Pressure.  That is a very strong area of high pressure for this time of year.  The air behind the blue dashed line is close to the leading edge of the much colder air mass.  The green areas represent forecast rainfall.

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday

Roads are fine this morning.  An early morning look from our ALFA Camera in Huntsville.  Temperatures are in the Teens.   

 

Increasing cloud cover this afternoon with some snow possible late tonight.  We could have travel problems developing Wednesday due to freezing rain and sleet.  We are monitoring the situation closely. Stay tuned for the latest information throughout the day.  Meteorologist Brian Fowler will have the latest forecast at Noon on WAFF 48 news.  I will see you at 5, 6 and 10pm.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

The latest from the National Weather Service.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
439 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

...WINTRY MIX TO CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...

.MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL
BE VERY COLD FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FALL
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WARMER AIR RUSHING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ALZ006-008>010-142200-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0011.101215T1500Z-101216T0300Z/
MADISON-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTSVILLE...GUNTERSVILLE...
SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE
439 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR SLEET BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
  THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.
  ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* VERY COLD AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW...
  SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADWAYS. BRIDGES
  AND OVERPASSES ARE MOST LIKELY TO BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS...BUT
  THE PROLONGED COLD SNAP WILL ALSO MAKE SURFACE ROADS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
  ICING. FREEZING RAIN IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH
  TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES...BUT WEAKER POWER LINES...TREES
  AND TREE BRANCHES MAY FALL OR SNAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.