WAFF Weather

More active weather next week but signs of a significant threat for severe weather are fading.

For a couple of days some long range forecast guidance had hinted at a potential threat for a more robust severe weather event somewhere in the Southeast early next week.   The following images show the model trends during the last four runs.  You will notice no real consistancy between each run.  The important thing to note about long range forecasting.  If something in the early period of the run is off the forecast error gets exponentially larger the farther you go into the future.  This is why we like to stay within 7 Days on the extended forecast.  Model trends and consistancy are the key. These four images are all forecasting for the same point in time.  Tuesday morning January 24th.

Through time the model output shows  a much weaker storm system.  We will continue to follow the long range forecast guidance for some consistancy.  The overall pattern remains very active with unseasonably warm and wet weather expecte to last the rest of the month.  We could be looking at an early severe weather season developing in February.   Changes can happen quickly during an active period and extended forecasting errors can be large.  Even forecasting beyond 4 days.

 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Monday morning run.

Monday evening run.  (00z Tue)

Tuesday morning run 

Tuesday Noon Run. 

Rainfall to date comparison for Muscle Shoals and Huntsville

 
Many areas of North Alabama and southern Tennessee have seen decent rainfall over the summer after a significant dry period throughout much of May.  Most areas are running five to ten inches above normal since January 1st.

I put together thest two graphics to show the rainfall up to August 11th over the past three years.  After a very dry summer in 2010 we got back to normal this summer thanks to a hot and muggy air mass which lead to numerous thunderstorms.  Many cotton crops look very healthy and due the to above normal rainfall it looks like this years fall colors could be spectacular coming up in October if the rainfall pattern remains close to normal. 

 

The data for Muscle Shoals

 

The data for Huntsville.

 

2011 Hottest Start to June on Record...

According to National Weather Service records for Huntsville.  This is the hottest start to June on record with an average high temperature for the first nine days 96.9 degrees. 

 

 

From the National Weather Service.

FOR HUNTSVILLE...THIS HAS BEEN THE HOTTEST START TO JUNE ON RECORD. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FROM JUNE 1 TO JUNE 8 HAS BEEN 83.9 DEGREES THIS
YEAR...WITH THE NEXT HOTTEST AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE SAME PERIOD
OCCURRING IN 1985 AT 82.2 DEGREES. AVERAGE HIGHS HAVE BEEN 96.9
DEGREES...WITH THE SECOND HOTTEST OF 94.8 DEGREES OCCURRING 100 YEARS AGO.

Close, but no records...yet...

Yesterday's high at Muscle Shoals topped out at 100, but that was not a record.  We barely missed the record high of 101 set back in 1925.  Today, however, will be a little easier to tie or break the old record.  The record high for today is 98 set back in also in 1925.  We're forecasting 98 today there as well.  Huntsville's record is a little less atainable.  Yesterday's high of 97 was 4 degrees off the the record.  Today's record is 100 and with a forecast high of 97 we will likely come up just short again.  Even without setting records we remain well above our average highs this time of year, which are in the low 80s.  Expect a big change this weekend with much cooler air arriving by the beginning of next week.

 

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team   

Enough Winter...Bring On Spring!

The forecast over the next 36 hours continues to have more questions than answers...where and how much snow will fall is still not entirely clear and this will likely turn into a nowcast, rather than a forecast. It's probably reasonably safe to say though that this will be our last brush with snow this winter. March is not typically a snowy month in North Alabama as we average a mere .4". The heaviest snowfall was in 1993 when 7.3" fell (most of that from the "superstorm"). In an average March high temperatures climb from 59 on the 1st to 68 by the 31st. The hottest monthly temperature was 90 in 1929. Overnight lows also rise from 37 on the 1st to 45 on the 31st. The coldest March temperature was 6 set back in 1980. March is the wettest month of the year with an average precipitation of 6.68". Our wettest March...17" of rain in March of 1980. Spring officially arrives at 12:32 pm Saturday March 20th! Jeff Castle WAFF 48 Storm Team