WAFF Weather

Wind Advisory Today

In addition to dealing with rain and a few stronger storms this afternoon and evening, we'll have very windy conditions developing.  A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1pm to 10pm.  The wind will pick up out of the south today with sustained wind speeds around 20-25mph this afternoon.  The wind could gust between 30 and 40mph at times.  Here are forecast wind gusts by mid-afternoon today according to WAFF 48 Pinpoint Predictor:

 

 

You'll need to hang onto the steering wheel if your driving from east to west or vice versa, particularly if you drive a high profile vehicle that can catch more wind.  The wind may also blow around light and unsecured objects such as trash cans, patio furniture and halloween decorations.

 

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team

Halloween Storm Update

We continue to track rain and storms that will likely impact your Halloween plans. Outside of the wet and stormy weather, it will be a windy day all across the Valley. Be sure to bring in or secure any loose outdoor objects, including Halloween decorations, or they’ll likely end up your neighbor’s. Winds will be sustained out of the south around 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-40mph, especially in the higher terrain.

A few showers are possible early Thursday morning but rain chances pick up during the afternoon hours out ahead of the cold front. The threat for stormy weather arrives  in NW Alabama, including the Shoals, sometime between 1 p.m. and 3 p.m...

...The I-65 corridor, including the Huntsville Metro, between 2-5 p.m.

...and for NE Alabama between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. 

Stormy weather will continue into the evening and overnight as the actualy cold front slides across the area. This will bring the last push of what will be heavy rain and gusty winds. Here is a timeline for when the best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will arrive across the area.

Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but a few storms could reach severe limits, especially across NW Alabama.

Right now the primary risk is for damaging wind gusts above 60 mph. An isolated, brief, spin-up tornado is possible, but again, tornadoes are not the primary concern.

Something to note, you’ve heard us say this is a ‘low instability/high shear’ event, which means we likely won’t see/hear a lot of THUNDERstorms. So don’t rely on hearing that or seeing a flash of lightning to know when a storm is coming. Our free WAFF app can push weather alerts straight to your smart phone, so if you’re out and about, you’ll stay on top of the weather! Just search for ‘WAFF’ in your app store.

Lauren Jones
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Halloween Storms

We continue to track a potent storm system that will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. The greater risk for severe storms will generally be along and west of I-65 (areas highlighted in yellow).

 

The risk is greater for NW AL because the activity is expected to arrive during the peak heating of the day…when the atmosphere is most unstable. Storms will begin to impact the NW corner of the state between 4-6pm, tracking west to east.

 

Once the sun goes down, the system will begin slowly weakening. It is also expected to slow down as it tracks east. During peak trick-or-treating time, most, if not all, locations across the Valley could  be dealing with strong storms and wet weather. The chance for a few strong storms will continue overnight as the weather slides east.

 

Damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and dangerous lightning are the primary threats at this time. There is a low end tornado threat for a brief spin-up tornado.

 

 Keep in mind we are forecasting storms that don’t exist yet, so the exact timing could change.  Plan on checking back with the WAFF 48 Storm Team often on-air, online at WAFF.com and on our mobile weather app for updates on timing and expected impacts.   

 

Lauren Jones
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Afternoon Drying, Halloween Storms

We woke up to scattered showers this morning, but will see drier weather this afternoon.  The upper level energy which generated the wet weather is now beginning to pull away from us and will continue to head east this afternoon.

 

While the showers will move out, the clouds will be a little slower to leave.  We're seeing some breaks, but we're unlikely to totally clear this afternoon.  Despite the limited sunshine, we'll still manage to warm up thanks to the milder start this morning.

We'll be in between weather makers tomorrow and Wednesday with temperatures warming well into the 70s the next couple of days.  Our next weather changer is getting going out west as a strong upper level storm system continues to develop out toward California and Nevada.  

All that upper level energy and an associated surface cold front heads east the next couple of days, reaching the southeast on Thursday.  We're at the time of year that we have to keep an eye on these strong storm systems for the possibilty of severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of NW Alabama for the risk of severe weather with this storm system.

The severe weather threat doesn't look particularly impressive at this point, but certainly a few strong storms with heavy rain and some gusty wind are possible.  Storms look to arrive by late afternoon or evening, and Halloween plans, including Trick-Or-Treat, could very well be affected.  Check back with us on-air and online at WAFF.com over the next few days for more exact timing and expected impacts from this storm system.

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team

Frosty and Fall-Like Weekend

We’ll kick off the weekend with another round of freezing or below freezing temperatures. We will come very close, but likely not break, the record coldest temperatures: Huntsville - 28° (1942) and Muscle Shoals - 28° (1962).

A freeze warning is in effect through 9am Saturday morning. Plants that are not tolerant to freezing temperatures will be damaged or killed if not protected. Also, be sure to bring your pets indoors and make sure they have plenty of fresh water.

 

In addition to freezing temperatures, widespread frost is also likely.

By Saturday afternoon, though, we’re looking at the slow warming trend to begin. A few clouds will arrive by Saturday evening, keeping temperatures above freezing for Sunday morning.

 

This weekend is looking fantastic for some fall-like football across the region.

Our next weather maker will arrive later next week…bringing some much needed rain and thunderstorms.

There has been a lot of chatter discussing the possibility of severe weather on Halloween. Right now, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this system. With the recent cold/dry spell, there is the question of how much moisture and instability can return to the TN Valley.

There is also the big timing question…

One model has the activity rolling through Wednesday night into Thursday, drying out before Trick or Treat time.

 

But check out another model at the same time – the system is still well to our west. 

 

Model #2 has the system coming through on Friday.

 

 Of course, we will continue to monitor the evolution of this next weather maker. Right now there are too many variables and not enough consistency with the data to accurately predict any threat but an increased chance of rain and the potential for thunderstorms Thursday into Friday of next week. Check back for additional updates!

Lauren Jones
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

The first freeze. Time to prepare for the cold season.

A freeze warning is in effect for the early morning hours on Friday. Temperatures over North Alabama and southern Tennessee will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s between 4am and 9am Friday morning.
Freeze Warning Area.

Frost Advisory Area.


 Some areas will be close to record low temperatures that were set back in the early 1900s.  The record low for October 25^th in Huntsville is 27 degrees dating back to 1909 and the record low for Muscle Shoals is 26 set in 1903.  Last year most areas had the first freeze on Halloween. Freezing temperatures are possible Saturday morning as well.  A warming trend will develop over the weekend.

Plants that are not tolerant to freezing temperatures and frost will be damaged or killed if not protected. Make sure your pets have plenty of fresh water during this cold period. Some water bowls could freeze. Widespread frost is also likely in all areas of the WAFF 48 viewing area.

With the colder weather making a return it's time to think about a few of the other household things we should be thinking about. I started thinking about it at 2:36am.   I was awakened by the chirping of the Smoke Alarm outside my bedroom door. Dead Battery! 
Of course the stepstool wasn't tall enough for me to reach it so I had to go to the garage and get the ladder.



It's all taken care of, now I'll just have to find a way to make up the sleep I lost. I brought this up on my facebook page earlier today and someone recommended the "Nest" Smoke Detector.  They say this detector will send you a message on your phone to let you know if your battery is low before it starts to make that chirping sound.  
Very Cool!  It's expensive though.  Around $130.00. 

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-348860/

We typically recommend replacing your batteries when we change our clocks.  This year we return to Central Standard Time Sunday November 3rd.

Don't forget the batteries in your NOAA Weather Alert Radio.


It's also that time of year to replace the furnace filters and make sure your dryer vent is free of lint and other deposits.  Dryer fires are more common than you might think.
One of my new filters.

Outside where my dryer lint ends up. 

Yuck! If you have dogs your lint might look like this too.



Don't forget your automobile.  The tires are the first to feel the weather.  Lower temperatures can lead to lower tire pressure.



A warming trend will begin this weekend. 

I will have the latest forecast coming up on WAFF 48 News at 4,5,6 and 10.

 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

Looking for images of the Valley.

Would you like to contribute to the WAFF 48 Storm Team forecast.  We'd love to show your town during the weather forecast.  We are looking for images we can use in our daily forecasts.  They need to show some of the sky so that we can cut out the sky and use model data to paint in the forecast.  I have some examples below that I took on my iphone. 

Far away shots don't work as well.  The best image is one that shows an equal amount of sky to land.  If you have a good one for use you can send it to me at btravis@waff.com

Examples below.

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team

 

Albertville. The original image.


The image below is with the original sky cutout.  The forecast image as been added.

Albertville High School.

Original Image.

Boaz




Madison.

Frost possible tonight and later this week.

A frost advisory has been issued for northeast Alabama overnight tonight.  Expect morning lows east of I-65 to be around 38 degrees.  Some of the sheltered valleys will be closer to the middle 30s.  Expect at least a light frost in these areas just before sunrise Monday morning.  Our next chance for widespread frost will be Thursday morning. 

We continue to track a strong cold front that will drop afternoon highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s for much of this week.  After a high near 72 Monday we will see increasing clouds late Monday night.  The cold front will begin to move in Tuesday evening.  Ahead of the front there will be a few areas of light rain develop along and directly ahead of the front.  There is not a lot of moisture for this front to work with therefore don’t expect to see any significant rainfall.


Behind the front the weather will be quiet and unseasonably cool.  Morning lows will dip into the middle 30s Thursday and Friday morning.  Frost could become widespread at that time. 

A slight warm up is expected for next weekend and the weather looks dry Saturday and Sunday at this time.

Have a great night.

 

Brad Travis
Chief Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms

More Chilly Air On The Way

The second in a series of fall cold fronts will track across the area today.  We're seeing a good  bit of cloudiness ahead of the front, but rain for the most part will stay to our north and south today.  A sprinkle or a passing light shower is possible, but we're not expecting anything more substantial than that.

 

 

Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s ahead of the front by early afternoon, then level off or fall slightly through the end of the day.  A breezy NW wind will develop just behind the front this afternoon.

 

 

The colder air arrives this evening, dropping temperatures into the 40s by 9pm. 

 

 

Tomorrow morning looks like the coldest of the season so far with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas.  The coldest air will lie in southern Tennessee where temperatures could dip into the mid 30s in spots.

 

 

Temperatures should remain just high enough and we'll keep enough of a breeze around to limit frost in most of the area, but in those colder Tennessee locations you may want to bring in the potted plants and cover up anything planted in the ground with a sheet or blanket if you want to keep them alive a little longer.  Frost Advisories have been issued for portions of middle Tennessee.

More cold air is expected later next week with even colder temperatures.  Widespread frost and even the first freeze of the season for some of the area is expected.  You can read more about the cool end to October in Thursday's blog post.

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team

Dense Fog Advisory Until 9am

Areas of dense fog have developed this morning prompting a Dense Fog Advisory for north Alabama and southern Tennessee until 9am.  Visibility is down to 1/4 mile or less in some spots.

Here's the view from our Russellville on our Alfa Camera Network this morning:

Plan on giving yourself plenty of time to get to your destination early this morning.  Slow down, keep your lights on low beam, and allow try to leave plenty of distance ahead of you....visibilty could only be a few hundred feet ahead of you at times.

 

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team