After a brief blast of arctic air this weekend, a warm up is expected for the new work week. We're also entering a more active pattern and tracking several storm systems. Keep in mind while reading this blog that a lot can and will change as we approach this time frame. At this point it looks like the first round of showers will arrive late Monday into Tuesday.
This system has decent upper level support but is lacking instability. A few rumbles of thunder and some lightning strikes are possible but this one will likely be just a rainy soaker.
(Tuesday morning)
The second system, however, has even more upper level support and the potential for better instability. The models generally agree (within a few hours) that this system will arrive late Thursday into Friday morning.
The best dynamics for this system, right now, would be to our south and west. The Storm Prediction Center has picked up on this and has issued a rare, Day 7 severe outlook highlighted that region.
The models are in fair aggrement with decent upper level wind energy during the overnight Friday into early Friday morning timeframe.
Like most of our winter systems, instability is going to be the big "if". One model is showing dewpoints climbing to near 60° ahead of the storms...
Another model is showing dewpoints near 50° for the TN Valley, with the best instability well to our south.
Be sure to check back frequently for updates regarding these 2 systems next week and tune into WAFF48 News at 4, 5, 6, & 10pm. Chief Meteorologist Brad Travis has your weekend forecast.
Lauren Jones
Meteorologist
WAFF48 Storm Team
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