We're still monitoring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms arriving with our next cold front on Wednesday. Windy and warm conditions are in the forecast leading up to the arrival of the stronger storms. We'll be in the mid 60s today and likely around 70 tomorrow.
Moisture doesn't appear to be a problem. Dew points, which are a measure of how much moisture is in the air, will be running into the 60s ahead of the storms Tuesday night...plenty of juice to fuel them.
And there will be plenty of wind in the atmosphere. The wind just a few thousand feet above our heads will be howling at a good 60-80 mph.
The primary time frame for severe weather in our area looks to be around midnight at the earliest and would last until mid-morning Wednesday at the latest. Keep in mind we are forecasting the arrival of storms that do not exist yet. Our most precise time of arrival estimates won't happen until after the line of storms gets going tomorrow afternoon to our west. Based on the current information here's how the time frame for storms breaks down according to WAFF 48 Pinpoint Predictor.
Storms will be entering NW Alabama around 2-3am.
By 5 or 6am they will have reached the Huntsville/Athens/Decatur area.
The stronger storms will reach NE Alabama around 8 or 9am, and should be completely clear of the area after 10am.
The primary threat appears to be damaging wind gusts over 60mph. Keep in mind the wind will already be quite strong above our heads and the storms coming through will easily be able to bring some of that higher wind down to the ground. Many of us could see wind gusts in the 40-50mph range as this line of storms rolls through and isolated wind gusts of 70-80 are certainly possible in the strongest storms.
There will be enough spin in the atmosphere that tornadoes are possible, however these would likely be isolated, relatively short-lived, and tend to fall at the low end of the Fujita Scale. A few things are working against a more significant tornado threat.
#1---It's January. Only 15 tornadoes have touched down in north Alabama in January since 1950...the most recent was just 3 years ago.
#2---The storm time frame brings them through late at night and into the morning hours. While we will be warm and humid, the atmospheric instability will be less than it would be if the storms came through during the afternoon.
#3---Getting severe weather and tornadoes is like baking...in order for it turn out they way you expect it to, you have to have the right ingredients and in the right amounts. Atmospheric spin is not an issue...we will have plenty of that. The total atmospheric instability is marginal at best. There's certainly enough to generate strong storms, but not necessarily enough to pose a significant tornado threat.
Here's the bottom line:
---Strong to severe storms are likely sometime after midnight Tuesday night and should be gone by mid-morning Wednesday.
---Damaging wind more than 60 mph is the primary threat. An isolated tornado or 2 is possible.
---There's no need to stress out about this, just stay informed by checking back with us for updates on the threats and timing. Make sure you have a way to get weather warnings since storms will likely arrive while many of you are sleeping.
Jeff Castle
WAFF 48 Storm Team
RSS
