WAFF Weather

Severe Weather Chances in the Forecast

A storm system with a surface low in Louisiana and associated upper-low in Arkansas will be the focal point for potential thunderstorms tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center has us under a Slight Risk for severe weather for Monday. Our main threats with any storms that develop tomorrow will be strong gusty winds and isolated tornadoes.

Along with potentially severe weather, locally heavy rainfall may produce accumulations from one to two inches in some areas.

Brian Fowler

Meteorologist

WAFF 48 Storm Team

We Track Storms

256-533-6397

Heavy Rain Potential for the Valley

Break out the rain gear....wet Fall weather is here!

It's been a while since we've seen much rain.  But we are above normal for precipitation for September.  4.65 is the grand total so far this month and 3.59 is the normal for this time in late September.

But out west a low is brewing.  It is already bringing rain showers as close as Jackson and Montgomery, at the time of this writing.  By Sunday, we could be looking at not only scattered showers but quite possibly some locally heavy rain by Sunday evening.  

As this low rolls through here Monday, our primary threat will be the locally heavy rain and maybe some wind gusts as well. This all wraps up early Tuesday.

 

Brian Fowler
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms
256-533-6397

College Football Forecasts--Week 5

We're looking forward to another great weekend of college football.  Auburn is off this week, getting some extra time to practice for their big game next week with the visiting Razorbacks of Arkansas.

Alabama is at home again this week, looking to stay unbeaten, and retain their #1 ranking.

Some showers are possible for pre-game festivities and a few could stick around for kickoff.  However it doesn't look like it will be a persistant rain.  Temperatures will be in the upper 70s at kickoff.

 

Rain chances will diminish throughout the game with just a stray shower possible by the 4th quarter.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s toward the end of the game.

 

Tennessee is on the road trying to upset #5 Georgia in Athens.  Showers are a possibility here as well throughout the game.  Temperatures will be mild, running in the 70s to around 80 during the game.  

 

Alabama A&M is at home taking on Grambling State in the Lewis Crews Classic Saturday evening.  The Bulldogs are trying to go 5-0 and stay atop the SWAC East standings against the winless Tigers.  The weather shouldn't be an issue with only a rogue shower possible at kickoff.  Any threat for rain should evaporate by the 4th quarter.  Temperatures are expected in the 70s during the game.

 

 It's Homecoming at UNA this weekend.  New Gulf South Conference member, Shorter University, comes to town for their first meeting ever with the Lions on the football field.  Most of the action should happen on the field and not in the sky with rather uneventful weather expected.  A stray shower is possible at kickoff, but the chance for rain is only 10%.  Dry weather is likely by the 4th quarter with temperatures dropping from the mid 70s to the upper 60s during the game.

 

 

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team

Fall Freeze Information

The cooler nights that we've seen in the last week are a reminder that the summer growing season will soon be coming to an end.  The first frost usually comes by mid to late October and the first freezes of the season are not too far after that.

Our friends at the National Weather Service in Huntsville are the keepers of all the weather data recorded in our area and have put together the table below with fall freeze information.  A hard freeze in our area occurs when temperatures fall to 28 degrees or colder.

Location	Avg FirstFreeze	Avg First Hard Freeze	Earliest First Freeze (Year)	Latest First Freeze (Year)	Station Record
Huntsville	Nov 2nd	Nov 12th	Oct 9th (2000)	Dec 5th (1978)	1907-2011
Muscle Shoals	Nov 2nd	Nov 12th	Oct3rd (1908)	Dec 5th (1978)	1893-2011
Belle Mina	Oct 29th	Nov 8th	Oct 2nd (1984)	Nov 26th (2004)	1950-2011
Bridgeport	Oct 24th	Nov 5th	Sep 23rd (1983)	Nov 15th (2004)	'55-'72, '83-'11
Cullman	Oct 25th	Nov 6th	Oct 1st (1924)	Dec 20th (2001)	1908-2011
Fayetteville	Oct 17th	Oct 30th	Sep 29th (1967)	Nov 14th (2003)	1958-2011
Guntersville	Nov 10th	Nov 23rd	Oct 14th (1977)	Dec 21st (2001)	'10-'12, '55-'11
Moulton	Oct 26th	Nov 9th	Oct 2nd (1984)	Nov 26th (2004)	1957-2011
Russellville	Oct 26th	Nov 4th	Sep 29th (1967)	Nov 27th (2009)	1954-2011
Scottsboro	Oct 28th	Nov 8th	Oct 3rd (1974)	Dec 1st (1918)	1894-2011
Valley Head	Oct 21st	Nov 2nd	Sep 22nd (1983)	Nov 19th (1935)	1893-2011
Winchester	Oct 26th	Nov 8th	Oct 7th (1991)	Nov 14th (2003)	1986-2011

 

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team

DEFCON 5

Just to fill you in....our normals for this time of year are 84/61.  Obviously, we've been below that lately, which is not necessarily a bad thing.  And Saturday is the first day of Fall.  It's still hard to believe that Summer is all but wrapped up now.

As far as active weather goes.  Not too much here lately.  Normally these blogs are full of all kinds of action like major cold fronts and severe storms but this is going to be a very inactive period for us. 

If this was our defense readiness condition, we would be at DEFON 5 right now. That is unless Matthew Broderick decided to play games and book a ticket to Paris for two on a WOPR government supercomputer named JOSHUA.  You do remember the movie War Games?

In fact, our one chance of rain comes with little fanfare on Saturday.  With a not-so saturated atmosphere and little instability, only a few showers may form across the area.  It could very well be the that the same number of people who actually watched the Chevy Chase Show will be affected by rain on Saturday.  Saturday itself will last much longer than his show.

So if you're into sunshine and below normal temperatures in the 70s, then the rest of this week will be right up your Alley.  And if you need the rain, don't hold your breath!

Brian Fowler
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms
256-533-6397

What a Great Way to End Summer

A couple of cold fronts over the past several weeks have really made for some very tolerable days as we have been counting down to the end of Summer.  This last cold front is no exception.

Only three days left, including today, until the first day of Fall.  We'll conclude Summer with 70s and lower 80s with sunshine. 

Then Saturday we'll ring in Fall with another cold front.  This particular front is looking kinda weak but may bring about a little rain for the beginning of the weekend. 

Otherwise, we are expecting a weekend that certainly will remind you that we are definitely turning a corner into a new season.

Brian Fowler
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms
256-533-6397

Big Changes as Fall Nears

Over the last 24 hours heavy rain has fallen across the Valley.  The National Weather Service has compiled some rain totals.  Here's a look at some totals from around the area.

And now that we're done with much of the rain, cooler weather will penetrate the Valley tonight. By early morning we'll feel some of the coolest air that we've seen since April.  Much of the area will bottom out in the mid 40s.

Kids that walk or are waiting on the bus in the morning might consider breaking out the a sweather or jacket.  However, by the afternoon much milder temperatures will prevail. 

Brian Fowler
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms
256-533-6397

Flood Watch Through Tuesday Morning

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1150 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 4 TO 5
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.


ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-180100-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FA.A.0002.120917T1700Z-120918T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
1150 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
  TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
  COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
  LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL AND
  MORGAN. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN
  AND MOORE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS A STORM
  SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
  4 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA
  AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
  EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.

* RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE RISES IN MANY TENNESSEE VALLEY
  STREAMS AND RIVERS. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED
  OUT...AS WELL AS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Early Week Soaker, Then Turning Cooler

It's shaping up to be an active first half of the work.  First up is rain, and there could be a lot of it.  An upper level storm system tracking ENE out of Texas will provide the necessary lift in the atmosphere to generate areas of rain and a few thunderstorms through tomorrow.  

WAFF 48 Pinpoint Predictor paints a wet picture this afternoon.  Heavier downpours will be possible at times along with steadier rain developing and moving through.

 

The picture early Tuesday isn't much different with persistent rain and heavier downpours continuing.  Rain will begin to taper off from west to east by Tuesday afternoon. 

 

Rain amounts look excessive with at least 1.5-2" in most areas.  Where the heavier bands of rain set up through Tuesday, rain totals of 4" or more are certainly possible in some areas!  

 

A strong cold front located across the northern plains this morning will sweep across the area tomorrow afternoon, bringing an end to the rain, but ushering the coolest air we've seen since last spring.  

 

Widespread temperatures in the 40s are likely by Wednesday morning.  The cooler weather is about right on time with the arrival of Autumn on Saturday morning.

 

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team

Soggy Followed by Some Cold

Gear up for wet weather.  Here it comes.  From the north and from the south....rain chances are increasing overnight and become likely tomorrow.

A developing area of low pressure in the Gulf will move north and spin moisture in the th Valley for Monday.  Rain may be locally heavy at times and could include a few rumbles of thunder and gusty winds but nothing severe. 

Then by Tuesday a strong Cold front moves in and keeps rain chances high much of the day.  In fact, by Tuesday night, some areas may have already seen a few inches of rain from two days of wet weather. 

This cold front will not only bring plenty of rain but also some much colder air.  We may very well see temperatures falling off into the 40s both Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Brian Fowler
Meteorologist
WAFF 48 Storm Team
We Track Storms
256-533-6397