Parts of north Alabama and southern Tennessee have been added to the latest severe weather outlook. A few stronger storms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through the evening hours.
Storms are continuing to develop across NE Mississippi and tracking to the SE around 15 mph. Some of these storms have prompted Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. These storms will continue to push toward and develop into NW Alabama through the evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring parts of NW Alabama for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The chance of a watch being issued is 40%.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN MS...NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011936Z - 012030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/NERN
MS AND PARTS OF NWRN AL THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE IN PROXIMITY TO A SSE MOVING MCV NOW ENTERING NW MS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THE THREAT...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING PARTS OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS ACROSS NERN MS.
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F
ACROSS NERN MS...WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
70S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. MIDLEVEL FLOW
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH ONE
OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH STORM MERGERS
WITHIN AREA OF FOCUSED ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE MCV. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500
J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER COVERAGE OF WIND THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WW
ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
Jeff Castle
WAFF 48 Storm Team
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