Watching The Tropics

We're keeping an eye on the tropics.  We do have one named storm, Tropical Storm Chris in the north Atlantic Ocean.  It's way out to sea, poses no threat to land, and will gradually lose it's tropical nature as it moves over cooler ocean water the next few days.

Of more immediate concern is a broad area of low pressure bringing showers and thunderstorms to the NW Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.  Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

 

The computer forecast guidance is not clear cut on the eventual track and strength of this tropical system.  One computer model only develops a weak system, headed east across Florida early next week.  This is it's forecast for 7pm Sunday:

 

24 hours later we see a strengthening tropical system headed east of the Sunshine State and out to sea:

 

A second computer model has a weak system over the Central Gulf Sunday evening:

 

However, rather than taking it east across Florida and out into the Atlantic early next week, it holds it over the Gulf, gradually allowing it to strengthen through mid-week.  This is the forecast it has for late Tuesday:

Needless to say, there's a lot of uncertainty here.  This will be something to watch particularly if you have a Florida or Gulf beach vacation planned for next week.  We'll keep you updated on any developments and you can always track what's happening in the tropics at our Hurricane Center on WAFF.com.

 

Jeff Castle

WAFF 48 Storm Team