That's the big question on many minds as we head into the Labor Day weekend. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave moving through the NW Caribbean Sea:
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Over the last few days, the computer models that we use to forecast have been indicating some tropical development over the Gulf heading into the Labor Day weekend. While there is consensus among the models of some development, the time frame in which this happens, what develops and where it ends up going is very much up in the air. Here's a handful of examples from of a few of these models...these are the various forecast surface maps for Sunday:
Most of these show tropical cyclones of varying intensity heading into Texas. One of the models takes a tropical cyclone to the eastern Gulf and then up the East Coast. And then WAFF 48 Pinpoint Predictor shows a small hurricane off the Louisiana Coast by Friday:
These different model solutions make for a challenging and uncertain forecast particularly along the Gulf Coast. This will be something to watch in the coming days. At the very least scattered showers and storms look likely along the Alabama coast through Labor Day. It's definitely not looking like the best beach weather this weekend.
We'll of course be updating the forecast as the picture becomes clearer in the next few days, and you can always stay up-to-date on what's happening in the tropics using our Hurricane Tracker on WAFF.com.
WAFF 48 Storm Team